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Study: Dominance of Diesel-fueled Trucks to Weaken by 2021

June 24, 2016 By: Trucking News Staff Tags: Fleet Management, Fuel, News

Last year, diesel engines made up 98.5 percent of the North American Class 8 vehicle market, but forecasters expect this dominance to lessen in the next five years, according to a new report by Americas Commercial Transportation (ACT) Research and Rhein Associates.

The North American On-highway Commercial Vehicle Engine Outlook, available now, is designed to present historical trends, current activity and forecasts of engine demand in on-highway commercial vehicles. The report analyzes significant trends in engine displacement, engine type (diesel, gasoline, natural gas, and other), captive versus non-captive engines, and premium versus non-premium power for Class 8 vehicles.

“This new report details current and future OEM offerings, the engine-related regulations in the pipeline and the impact of these regulations on the market, as well as our forecast for the North American commercial vehicle engine industry through 2021,” said Tom Rhein, president of Rhein Associates. “For instance, the Class 8 production was split 75.5 percent tractor to 24.5 percent truck in 2015, but we expect the truck share to grow as explained in the report.”

According to Ken Vieth, ACT’s senior partner and general manager, “We see captive engines gain in market share, as in-house models increase and displacements are reduced.”

“While we don’t expect a complete reversal by 2021, the industry is certainly going through a transition. Diesel dominates, but the share will narrow, and non-captive engines are likely to decline, barring any unforeseen circumstances.”

Vieth added, “With the impending GHG Phase Two regulations and growth of vertical integration across the supply chain, and with the constant push for engine efficiencies and reduced emissions simultaneously, now seemed like the time to apply our models and expertise collaboratively to provide intel unlike any other available.”

For more information on the report, visit