Trucking News Online

85 Million Autonomous-Capable Trucks, Cars to be Sold by 2035

September 4, 2015 By: Trucking News Staff Tags: Fleet Management, News, Technology

As manufacturers continue to roll out the first combinations of advanced driver assistance features, some cars and trucks will soon have the ability to cruise freeways and safely navigate traffic with minimal driver input.

A new report from Navigant Research claims 85 million autonomous-capable vehicles are expected to be sold annually around the world by 2035. The just-released report looks at the market for fully and semi-autonomous driving, with global market forecasts by region for vehicle volume and revenue, for the next 20 years.

While autonomous vehicle technology continues to evolve, so does its potential to institute significant changes in safety and personal mobility, particularly in large cities.

“Studies have shown that measurable improvements in traffic flow can be expected if as few as 10 percent of vehicles on a road are using adaptive cruise control, which is just one type of advanced driver assistance,” says Dave Alexander, senior research analyst with Navigant Research. “One of the challenges is not just to get the systems installed, but to provide incentives for people to use them on a daily basis.”

An important consideration for this market, according to the report, is how quickly the technology will spread to the installed base of vehicles on the road. Over the next five years, increasingly sophisticated driver assistance systems are expected to be introduced by a wide range of manufacturers, and it is important to understand the capability of the technology and how much driver interaction is required as new features are introduced.

The report, Autonomous Vehicles, provides a detailed examination of the emerging market for different levels of fully and semi-autonomous driving. The study provides a discussion of the potential benefits, demand drivers, inhibitors, and technology issues related to advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous vehicles, as well as profiles of the leading vehicle manufacturers and suppliers.

Global market forecasts by region for volumes of vehicles with Level 2, 3, and 4 autonomy, along with the associated revenue, extend through 2035. The report also includes an assessment of how quickly the percentage of vehicles with some autonomous capability will grow within the overall number of vehicles on the road in each of the six major world regions.

An executive summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant Research website.